WHAT'S NEXT?
With natural assets being the most threatened by flood exposure, this would be a major loss of both Wetlands and Chesapeake Bay Protection areas in Norfolk, with 20.45% and 36.34% lost to 4.5ft of sea level rise respectively. In addition to loss of land itself, the structure of the remaining wetlands can be vastly altered. According to a 1997 study on Southeastern wetlands, changes in climatic patterns, especially precipitation, can alter wetlands’ hydrology, biotic structure, nutrient cycling, and more (Michener et al., 1997). If climate patterns continue to alter, the persistence of these wetlands will be highly threatened and their survival will rely upon changes made between the interactions between humans, the climate, and remaining resources.
Another concern in particular is the amount of military assets that are exposed to flooding. Norfolk is home to the world's largest naval base, and the analysis showed that 10.24% of military parcels will be exposed to a 4.5 foot increase in sea level rise. In addition, almost 22% of military parcels fall within the 100-year floodplain, jumping up to 46.5% in the 500-year floodplain. According to a New York Times article on the relationship between climate change and the military, the US will likely be needed as a major role in providing humanitarian relief and military response in more vulnerable regions facing high threats of climate change impacts. Areas in the East, such as India and Bangladesh, are already massively overpopulated. In the event of sea level rise or increased catastrophic storm events, hundreds of thousands of refugees could potentially be misplaced and forced into surrounding countries. While this will increase the population density in an already dense area, it can also lead to cultural conflicts and supply shortages for necessities like food and water. If some of the largest Naval bases in the US have also received damage from flood exposure, like the one in Norfolk, this will significantly impact not only the structure of our own military and economy, but our ability to supply aid to other countries in a crisis as well.
Additionally, 3,697 residential buildings fall within the 4.5 foot sea level boundary. If sea level were to rise this dramatically in Norfolk, thousands of residents would be homeless and misplaced. This can lead to overcrowding in the areas of Norfolk not exposed to water, as well as forced migration to areas outside of Norfolk. Along with a loss of residential housing, 7.86% of transportation assets would be flooded in the event of 4.5 feet of sea level rise. This percentage seems small but would massively effect the infrastructure of Norfolk.
Major Concerns:
What Can Be Done?
Ideally, the fight would start at the source: combating greenhouse gas emissions and committing to reducing CO2 emissions in particular. Several cities in Virginia have already pledged to the goal of carbon neutrality by the year 2050, including Charlottesville and Richmond. Norfolk has yet to do so. Fortunately, however, after Norfolk’s release of their Coastal Resiliency Plan, the city began updating building codes so that the lowest floor of any new building construction could not be lower than three feet above the predicted flood elevation of that area. In regards to protecting existing buildings, the city has proposed increased use of flood walls, flood gates, pump stations, and man made berms. In order to protect downtown infrastructure, Norfolk built a 0.5 mile long flood wall in addition to raising the roads’ elevation. It is very important that homeowners within the flood zones purchase flood insurance. The web application that was created with this report could be a useful tool for helping citizens determine the location status of their home or business.
In order to slow the land subsidence that the region is experiencing, it is crucial to adapt more sustainable water management practices and reduce the removal of groundwater for our supply. This is a task that the Chesapeake Bay Watershed must take on as a whole. It would be extremely useful if desalination technology efficiency improved so that ocean water or brackish water could potentially be converted to drinking water. While the region works to control their removal of groundwater, there are some methods for restoring groundwater in subsiding areas. In 2018, the Hampton Roads area of the Chesapeake Bay has already taken on a commitment to SWIFT (Sustainable Water Initiative for Tomorrow) with a goal to inject 120 million gallons of treated wastewater back into the region’s aquifers per day in order to restore ground pressure and prevent further compression.
